随着美联储年底大概率启动缩减购债，国家外汇管理局在9月30日发布的《2021年上半年中国国际收支报告》中以专栏的形式分析了潜在影响，认为短期内美联储政策收紧引发市场动荡的风险可控。
As the fed started to cut the end of the big probability bond purchases, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on September 30, issued the first half of 2021 China international balance report in the form of a column in the analysis of the potential impact, think the fed policy tightening in the short term market turmoil of the controllable risk.
在题为《全球超宽松货币政策面临转向》中，外汇局表示，美联储大概率于年底启动缩减购债，部分新兴经济体已率先启动加息。但是，当前美国就业缺口仍较大，变种病毒亦在拖累经济复苏，预计美联储收紧货币政策步伐将较为缓慢。再加上美联储与市场沟通比较充分，市场机构普遍认为国际金融市场再现“缩减恐慌”的风险可控。
In titled “global ultra-loose monetary policy turned to” the safe, said large probability at the end of the year starts to cut bond purchases by the federal reserve, some emerging economies have been first to start raising interest rates. However, the current U.S. employment gap is still large, mutant viruses also in drag on economic recovery, is expected to slow pace of the federal reserve tightened monetary policy. Combined with the federal reserve and communication more fully, market institutions is generally believed that the international financial market "panic" shrinking risk controllable.
当地时间9月29日，鲍威尔在参加“货币政策之未来”的欧洲央行线上论坛时更是表示，供应链瓶颈及企业难招人等问题比央行预期要大及持久，通胀存在上涨的风险。如果情况持续，美联储将会采取行动，以确保通胀符合目标。
Local time on September 29, Powell in "the future of monetary policy" online BBS also said the European central bank (ECB), supply chain bottleneck and difficult to make the enterprise hiring is bigger than the central bank expected and durable, the risk of inflation is rising. If the situation continues, the fed will take action, to ensure that conform to target inflation.
谈及美国通胀，上述专栏指出，美联储将近期供需错配导致的高通胀视为暂时性。在平均通胀目标制框架下，美联储不再先发制人控制通胀，而是尽量维持宽松以促进就业复苏。
不仅是美联储，上述专栏指出，全球央行超宽松货币政策立场面临转向。
When it comes to inflation in the United States, the column pointed out, the fed will recent mismatch between supply and demand lead to high inflation as temporary. In average inflation targeting framework, the fed is no longer a pre-emptive strike to control inflation, but try to maintain easy recovery to promote employment.
Not only is the federal reserve, pointed out that the column to facing global central bank's ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
其中，欧央行预计2021年四季度将降低购债速度，2022年将退出紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)。英国央行已降低购债速度，9月会议态度进一步转“鹰”，释放可能在年底购债结束前就开始加息的信号。日本央行在收益率曲线控制框架下，择机削减了资产购买规模。
Among them, the European central bank is expected in the fourth quarter of 2021 will reduce the speed of bond buying, 2022 will exit the emergency disease resistance bond buying program (PEPP). The bank of England has slows the bond buying, September meeting attitude "eagle", further release may bond purchases at the end of the year began to raise interest rates before the end of the signal. The bank of Japan in the yield curve control framework, initially cut the size of the asset purchases.
受此影响，部分新兴经济体率先启动加息。高通胀压力下，截至9月末，巴西、俄罗斯和墨西哥央行2021年已分别累计加息425个、250个和 50个基点，未来仍可能进一步加码。
As a result, some emerging economies first to start raising interest rates. High inflation pressure, by the end of September, Brazil, Russia and Mexico's central bank has accumulated rate respectively 425, 2021, 250 and 50 basis points, the future is still likely to further more.
“短期内美联储政策收紧引发国际金融市场震荡的风险可控。中期看，美国经济温和复苏有望持续，供给约束与需求回暖之间的矛盾难以快速消退，未来通胀可能持续高位徘徊，需持续关注通胀走势对美联储加息步伐的影响。”外汇局表示。
"In the short term fed tightening international financial market volatility risk control. Medium term, moderate U.S. economic recovery is expected to continue, the contradiction between the supply constraints and demand recovery is difficult to quickly faded, future inflation may continue to gyrate, need to continue to focus on inflation trends affect the pace of the federal reserve to raise interest rates." Safe said.
本文选自：澎湃新闻
