全球市场风险情绪降温,欧美股市遭遇抛压。欧美等地新增确诊激增,打击了市场对经济复苏的信心。
截至发稿,道指期货跌0.1%,标普500期指跌0.1%,纳指期货跌0.1%。
欧股低开低走,德国DAX30指数、英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指数、意大利富时MIB指数、欧洲斯托克600指数分别下跌0.9%、0.8%、0.8%、0.3%、0.7%。
美元指数有所反弹,日内最高触及92.73;欧元/美元则最低跌至1.1819,逼近1.18关口。
现货黄金显著下跌,日内最低1854.96美元/盎司,最多大跌近20美元。
由于全球新冠肺炎疫情形势严峻,尤其是欧美等地新增确诊激增,以及死亡人数的陡增,引发市场愈加担忧经济复苏的信心,这使得市场风险情绪降温。
此外由于美国财政刺激举措的出路仍然很遥远,这也是投资者担忧的一个因素。
新冠肺炎病例和死亡人数持续上升,欧洲市场走软。市场为新冠肺炎疫苗试验取得的进展而欢欣鼓舞,但周四,大流行对经济和身体造成的直接损失仍令人担忧。
美国与冠状病毒相关的死亡人数已达到25万人。周三,意大利和土耳其的死亡人数也达到了今年4月以来的最高水平,而德国、英国和法国的病例数量似乎已达到平稳水平。在西班牙,与冠状病毒相关的死亡率也在再次上升。
CMC Markets首席市场分析师Michael Hewson说,“随着感染率和住院率的上升,以及目前的封锁限制要么继续存在,要么延长到2021年的风险,任何经济损失成为永久性损失的可能性只会增加。”
Michael Hewson还指出,“这些风险需要用一种可行的疫苗的长期效益来抵消,这种疫苗即使明年开始推出,也可能需要长达两年的时间才能真正发挥作用。”
与此同时,辉瑞和BioNTech周三报告称,他们的3期试验的最终分析显示,该疫苗对COVID-19的有效性为95%,赶上Moderna疫苗的试验结果。
最值得注意的是,对65岁以上人群的有效性为94%,这将有助于保护最脆弱的群体,并在政府开始开展免疫接种运动时使社会更快地恢复正常。
英国退欧也是影响英国市场风险情绪的一个主要因素。
欧洲领导人将于周四晚些时候要求欧盟委员会公布无协议计划,英镑因此受到打击。人们担心,在企业不知道如何为最坏的情况做准备的情况下,英国退欧谈判仍在继续。
周四晚些时候需要关注的重要讲话包括克利夫兰联储梅斯特和波士顿联储罗森格伦。经济数据数据包括美国每周初请失业金人数等。欧盟领导人将于周四晚上通过视频会议举行会议。
随着月底的临近,各投行纷纷公布了养老金再平衡对股票和债券流动性的影响预测。根据24小时全球市场数据跟踪网站NewsSquawk的数据,近一个月股票的表现大幅优于债券,标普500指数的总回报率为10.50%,美国10年期国债的总回报率为0.05%,也就是说股票收益比固定收益高出10.45%。
因此高盛预计,养老金月底将净卖出股票360亿美元。值得注意的是,根据高盛的数据,这将是2000年以来的第四大卖出纪录。
Before us stock market: risk sentiment cooled, Dow futures fell 0.1%
Global market risk sentiment cooled, European and American stock markets suffered selling pressure. The surge of new diagnoses in Europe, the United States and other places has hit the market's confidence in economic recovery.
As of press release, Dow futures fell 0.1%, S & P 500 futures fell 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.1%.
European stocks opened lower, while Germany's DAX30 index, FTSE 100 index, CAC40 index of France, FTSE MIB index of Italy and Stoxx 600 index of Europe fell 0.9%, 0.8%, 0.8%, 0.3% and 0.7% respectively.
The US dollar index rebounded, reaching a high of 92.73 in the day, while the euro / dollar fell to 1.1819, close to 1.18.
Spot gold fell significantly, with a intraday low of $1854.96/oz and a maximum drop of nearly $20.
As the global novel coronavirus pneumonia situation is grim, especially the rapid increase in the number of confirmed cases in Europe and the United States and the sharp increase in deaths, the market is increasingly worried about the confidence of the economic recovery, which makes the market risk mood cooled.
This is also a factor of concern for investors, as the way out of US fiscal stimulus is still far away.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia cases and deaths continue to rise, and the European market is weakening. Markets dance for joy in novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine trials, but the direct economic losses and losses caused by the pandemic on Thursday are still worrying.
The number of coronavirus related deaths in the United States has reached 250000. On Wednesday, the death toll in Italy and Turkey also reached their highest level since April, while the number of cases in Germany, Britain and France appears to have reached a plateau. In Spain, coronavirus related mortality is also rising again.
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC markets, said, "with the increase in infection and hospitalization rates, and the risk that the current blockade limits either continue or extend into 2021, the likelihood of any economic loss becoming permanent will only increase."
Michael Hewson also noted that "these risks need to be offset by the long-term benefits of a viable vaccine, which could take up to two years to really work even if it starts next year."
Meanwhile, Pfizer and biontech reported on Wednesday that their final analysis of phase 3 trials showed that the vaccine was 95% effective against covid-19, catching up with the results of Moderna.
Most notably, the effectiveness for people over 65 years old is 94%, which will help protect the most vulnerable groups and bring society back to normal more quickly when the government begins its immunization campaign.
Brexit is also a major factor affecting risk sentiment in the UK market.
The pound was hit by European leaders due to ask the European Commission later on Thursday to announce a no deal plan. There are concerns that brexit talks are continuing without companies knowing how to prepare for the worst.
Important speeches to watch later on Thursday include Cleveland fed mester and Boston fed Rosenberg. Economic data include the number of new jobless claims per week in the United States. EU leaders will meet through a video conference on Thursday night.
As the end of the month approaches, investment banks have published forecasts of the impact of pension rebalancing on stock and bond liquidity. According to the 24-hour global market data tracking website newssquare, stocks have outperformed bonds significantly in the past month, with the total return on the S & P 500 index of 10.50% and the total return of 10-year US Treasury bonds of 0.05%, which means that stock returns are 10.45% higher than fixed income.
As a result, Goldman Sachs expects pensions to net sell $36 billion of shares at the end of the month. It's worth noting that, according to Goldman Sachs, this will be the fourth largest selling record since 2000.